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Date: 7 months ago   Category: Finances

What risks does falling of oil bear for the budget, ruble and petrol prices?


Oil partially won back on November 14 falling. Before a flank of Brent cost less than 65 dollars. How will Russia endure the current decrease in the oil prices? Photo: Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters Washington can celebrate: Donald Trump said more than once that he price of oil too high, and demanded that the OPEC lowered them. The cartel and arrived. The review of the organization became the catalyst of the current falling: it lowered the forecast for demand for raw materials and raised the forecast for the offer. Actions of Washington which the most rigid option did not begin to impose the anti-Iranian sanctions were the deep cause. So desire of the U.S. President came true, and thanks to low oil Americans will receive cheaper gasoline. If to look at the Russian social networks, then users do not doubt: prices of oil high — gasoline in Russia rises in price, prices of oil low — gasoline in Russia rises in price. It is connected with the fact that about 70% of cost of fuel are taxes and also with the fact that pricing in Russia is often result of personal arrangements of oil industry workers and officials. As for dependence on the oil prices, there has to pass time, the head of the analytical department of BKS financial group Maksim Shein says: Maksim Shein the head of the analytical department of BKS financial group "For the oil companies and, as a result, for petrol prices, expenses of productions which are connected with consumption of oil products all of them are more tied on what will be the average price in a quarter or even for half a year. Oil can make considerable fluctuations within a year, but if from year to year the average price does not change, then, in principle, the effect for economy more or less balanced is gained". However, the low prices of oil together with the risen in price ruble is a natural regulator for domestic prices for gasoline. The reason of fuel crisis are expensive hydrocarbons and weak ruble which made attractive export of gasoline and created deficiency in domestic market. By the way, in the summer the Minister of Energy Alexander Novak said that price of oil in 70 dollars for a barrel has to stabilize domestic market. Now oil cost is even lower than this level. But how it will be reflected in the budget? It this year surplus, but if oil falls further, it is necessary to involve reserves, the economist Sergey Hestanov says: Sergey Hestanov the adviser for macroeconomic of the CEO of the Otkrytiye-broker company "One of secrets why with such high intensity reserves collect, just also is that the scenario of falling of the oil prices is considered as quite probable. But if low prices last long, it is much more, than half a year-year, then, naturally, to spend reserves with such intensity that will support the budget calculated proceeding from higher prices of oil, nobody". All year the Ministry of Finance actively filled up reserves. Only in ten months it is laid off more than 3 trillion rubles, and in November — December will buy currency for one half-trillion. By the way, the fact that ruble, despite expensive neft is connected with these purchases

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