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Date: 3 months ago   Category: Finances

"Time to sell dollars". The ruble has slightly become stronger after Oreshkin's statements


Maxim Oreshkin.
In Business FM interview the Minister of Economics has commented on ruble depreciation and Maxim Oreshkin has passed an opinion on new sanctions and inflation. Photo: Mikhail Tereshchenko / TASS Maxim Oreshkin after the interview of Business FM became the chief newsmaker of day — first of all, thanks to comments on ruble exchange rate. The dollar has slightly decreased, and as have reported news agencies, it has occurred thanks to verbal interventions of the Minister of Economics. Practically on all large Russian media Oreshkin's council has dispersed: now it is worth selling dollars and to buy rubles. If more precisely, the Minister of Economic Development has answered an appropriate question "yes". But before it he has once again reminded that the forecast of the ministry — an exit to level of 63-64 rubles for dollar in spite of the fact that now — about 70. — Even you ask a question in a negative way because you see that... — Because negative it is much bigger psychologically now. — Correctly. You know the known quote of Warren Buffett: it is necessary to buy when you are afraid. When everything is good and all are sure of something, it means that, on the contrary, at this asset of prospects there isn't a lot of. — Let's say us, perhaps, the following trouble — simply waits for drop in oil prices. It is possible to predict it and how it then will affect an overall picture at us? — It just what at us is put in the forecast. We have put reduction of prices of oil in the medium term closer to the level of 60 dollars for barrel, now — 78, that is quite serious decrease. — 60 dollars are a small decrease for oil. — After all it is 20%. — Two years ago she to 28 fell. — Just the budgetary rule which takes a cut-off in 40 dollars for barrel is also calculated on such scenarios. — You answer from all directions all these market arguments which push ruble now down. If it is attentive to listen to you, then now it is necessary to sell dollar and to buy ruble? — Yes. Not all have apprehended Maxim Oreshkin's words positively. For example, anonymous Telegram channels have reacted with a phrase: listen to Oreshkin and make on the contrary. At the same time not all have noticed that the minister in detail reasoned the opinion. Only for April-July the Russian debt papers were left by about 6 billion dollars, and residents continue to reduce investments in the Russian federal loan bonds. All this affects a course. But there will be nothing to flow away soon. At the same time the ruble is strongly underestimated, and the Central Bank has stopped purchases of currency. All this together with good economic indicators will also lead to strengthening of a rate of national currency: "We have very serious current account. The central bank doesn't redeem currency from the market. By our estimates, the lack of purchases of the Central bank at such high price of oil means an equilibrium course around 45-50 rubles for dollar. It is that gap which is now, and it is connected, first of all, with serious capital outflow which goes including from the debt market. If to imagine such scenario that the Central bank in principle will stop purchases of currency in process of capital outflow depletion, the course will begin to become stronger quite seriously and quickly". However, there is an expectation

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