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Date: 6 months ago   Category: Finances

The Ministry of Finance has glanced in the future: the forecast of an exchange rate of ruble for 17 years ahead


Department considers that by 2031-2035 the dollar will cost 73 rubles 90 kopeks. What it can be connected with and as the experts interviewed by Business FM treat such long-term scenario of the Photo: depositphotos.com the Ministry of Finance has given the forecast of an exchange rate of ruble for 17 years ahead. According to forecasts of department, by 2031-2035 the dollar will cost 73 rubles 90 kopeks. It is said writes RBC in the document introduced to the State Duma together with the budget. Till 2020 average dollar exchange rate according to the basic scenario will be 61 rubles 90 kopeks. Business FM has asked experts to estimate this forecast. Sergey Suverov is the senior analyst of BKS "From the point of view of long-term prospects of several years really there is a big confidence that the ruble will be weakened concerning other currencies. It is connected first of all with the fact that, unfortunately, economic and technological lag of Russia from the western countries will amplify. And growth rates of the Russian economy in the next years will be lower than average world. And exchange rate, as we know, is reflection of economic power of the country. The second — sanctions against Russia, most likely, will amplify that will limit inflow to the country of the external capital. It will have negative effect on ruble exchange rate too. Well and third factor. Traditionally from Russia rather big capital outflow. And, most likely, capital outflow will be rather big that will have negative effect on ruble exchange rate too. Really, from the point of view of prospects of several years the ruble will be weakened concerning dollar and other world currencies more likely". In the last year's long-term forecast the Ministry of Finance expected weaker in nominal terms ruble. Till 2020 department predicted that the average nominal rate of dollar will make nearly 3 rubles more — 64 rubles 80 kopeks, and by 2035 — 82,5 rubles. It is already nearly 11,5 rubles more than the present forecast. To give forecasts for 10-15 years ahead for any currency business ungrateful, the independent analyst Dmitry Stepanov considers. Dmitry Stepanov is an independent analyst "Actually, to give long-term forecasts very complex such work because all facts: geopolitical, development of world economy, any tendencies in various sectors can't be considered. All this will affect, certainly, a course. But if to speak about ruble as about national currency, then we see the difficult periods which with some interval repeat. As, actually, and on any other currency, there are so-called cycles. Actually, any investor can see and calculate them through what approximately periods the currency appears under pressure. It is natural if we take a situation in 15 years, for example, that any absolutely world currency will appear under pressure, and more than once. Therefore, from my point of view, any forecast is also necessary in order that to lean on something. But we have to understand that it only and, most likely, will remain the forecast. If to consider a course, for example, in 70 rubles for dollar, then, from my point of view, it is quite low course. He at

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