According to Ministers of Finance and heads of the Central Banks, the reasons of deterioration in a situation are not trade wars and sanctions, and internal problems. What problems and as they will influence the foreign exchange market are? Photo: depositphotos.com Financial "twenty" sounded threats for global economy. At the end of the week the group gathered within the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. Ministers of Finance and heads of the Central Banks discussed threat of deterioration in an economic and financial situation in a number of developing countries. The reasons are not trade and sanctions wars, and internal problems. It is uncertainty of policy, high level of debt and the growing financial vulnerability. According to the IMF, at expansion of full-scale trade war China will lose more than 1% of GDP, losses will be suffered also by the United States. And it does not contribute to the general economic development too. And though, according to experts, the main difference of this meeting from taken place in April in Washington that today about trade contradictions speak not as about threat any more, and how about the fact, nevertheless, whether all these theses will exert impact on the foreign exchange market in the short term? The independent analyst Dmitry Stepanov argues on it: — From my point of view, that situation which is sounded by the G20 proceeds more from problems of Italy where we have serious economic tension now. The policy and economy is in the state which is not really understood by investors. This is the third world borrower with a sovereign debt nearly 3 billion dollars. There are certain fears that the largest world investors are the American, German and French banks — on the one hand, can receive a chain of losses, and it, actually, domino effect will affect all world economy. This will most of all disturb investors now as the fact because proceeds already from the Italian politicians, proceeds from quotations, we see that the Italian bonds in fact reach four-year minima. As for the G20, it will give acceleration of news. Those quotations which we have on closing of last trade week consider all these fears, and the American indexes very strongly sank, the French indexes very strongly sank, the markets will try to jump aside after all. — By the end of the year what figures will be how you think? — Everything will depend on how the chain of the relations in Europe will develop - it is Italy, France, Germany more. Because we already predict the American movement - it is sanctions against Iran which is the third largest exporter of oil. Sanctions, certainly, support oil - it is plus for ruble. But the situation in Europe will prevail and if we see that in the next several weeks the situation with the Italian debt will be untwisted on a spiral, we can see serious consequences for all currencies. But until after all high probability of the fact that it will quickly be forgotten investors continue to disperse oil, respectively, and the ruble in the next weeks will continue to become stronger, perhaps, by the end of the year too. In opinion a portfolio
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