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Date: 10 months ago   Category: Finances

The Central Bank prepares for the worst?


The regulator has allowed a possibility of recession in Russia in case of extension of sanctions. At this Central Bank doesn't see threats for currency deposits and isn't going to convert them into Photo rubles forcibly: Mikhail of Pochuyev/TASS the Central Bank allows recession in Russia in case of extension of sanctions. It is said in the September report of the regulator on monetary policy which has appeared on September 14. On the same day the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina has made a number of statements. All this remained on the second plan as experts discussed the unexpected decision of the Central Bank on increase in a key interest rate and the moratorium on purchase of currency until the end of the year. Meanwhile in the report of the Central Bank and Nabyullina's words there is a lot of interesting. The Central Bank, judging by the report, prepares for the worst. No you will call the statistical data, forecasts provided in him iridescent. So, since April foreigners have brought out of the Russian state bonds of nearly one half-trillion rubles. The Central Bank has raised the forecast for capital outflow in the current year almost twice — to 55 billion dollars against 30 billion which were earlier. Inflation, according to the Central Bank, next year will disperse up to 5-5,5%, including due to ruble depreciation and increase in the VAT. And the gain of GDP will be reduced to 1,2-1,7%. It is the basic scenario. According to the risk scenario the Central Bank allows the negative growth of the Russian economy in case of considerable deterioration in external conditions, including because of toughening of sanctions and drop in oil prices to 35 dollars. However, what can be this negative growth, the Central Bank doesn't specify. About signals which are sent by the Central Bank, the director of Institute of relevant economy Nikita Isayev:nikita Isaev the director of Institute of relevant economy "Says Nabiullina begins to enclose straws under both unpopular actions, and actions which will be carried out in attempt to limit significant negative impact on the Russian economy of what will occur. Therefore I believe that Nabiullina, including expecting an essential barrage of criticism, gives a signal to federal elite, including the President of the Russian Federation now that the reasons of her unpopular actions consist in an inefficient geopolitical situation in the world which influences the financial and budgetary situation in Russia". The Central Bank not just prepares for deterioration in a situation around Russia, but also already takes necessary measures. Nabiullina at a briefing has told that the regulator has worked with the largest banks the system of measures on a case of imposition of new sanctions. About what measures there is a speech, she hasn't specified. Perhaps, on a case of introduction of the ban on payments in dollars for the Russian state banks that isn't excluded by experts. At the same time Nabiullina has tried to calm Russians, having said that the Central Bank doesn't plan to convert dollar deposits to ruble forcibly. The independent analyst Dmitry Stepanov:dmitry Stepanov the independent analyst "Comments many persons at us keep currency on bank accounts or just in a conventional glass jar. They have fears into the account of their investments, first of all bank investments. To the population have let know that their deposits in infusion

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