The regulator has raised a rate, the ruble has departed up. This decision became a bolt from the blue for the market. The Central Bank has raised a rate on 25 basis points, and since September 17 it will be 7,5%. This first toughening of monetary policy since 2014. What could the Bank of Russia be guided by? Photo: depositphotos.com the Central Bank has surprised. The market didn't wait that the regulator will lower a rate: the majority thought that she won't change. But the Central Bank counter to all forecasts has toughened policy — not strongly and not really clear why. But there is such explanation: The Bank of Russia has shown the independence. Recently the high-ranking officials, including Dmitry Medvedev and Andrey Belousov, persistently advised the regulator not to raise a rate, and it is even better — to lower that was well read in the statement of the prime minister who has complained about expensive credits for business. The Central Bank, of course, has explained that it raises a rate because of inflationary risks and disorders in the financial market. But all the same, it looks as a political act of people from Neglinnaya Street. Analysts, on personal feelings, have taken offense. Evgeny Nadorshin the chief economist of PF "Capital" "It here in the way it is inaccurate to operate expectations of analysts is unattainable luxury. Not the first time of the Central Bank misses by expectations of analysts, not the first time his signals going to the market, and not the first time this year are very chaotic. It creates misunderstanding, mistrust between economic agents and the Central bank, and it for the inflationary mode much bigger threat, than these 0,25 at the rate, I don't know for the sake of what. They as you understand, practically give nothing". On the other hand, the Central Bank has shown to public that it guards ruble. The regulator not only has raised a rate, but also has said that it until the end of the year won't buy currency for the Ministry of Finance. The ruble has reacted instantly, having flown up to 67,5 for dollar. Probably, the decision of the Bank of Russia can be explained also with the fact that it wants to calm the population. The dollar has seriously risen recently, and it always irritates citizens. People run in exchangers and with alarm wait that everything will rise in price soon. By the way, Elvira Nabiullina said more than once that Russians shouldn't pay attention to dollar exchange rate — we have in the country all in rubles. And here the head of the Central Bank has directly reported that the current depreciation of national currency will contribute the share in inflation — nearly a percent. As for a course, strengthening of ruble is very probable, the chief economist of Alfa-Bank Natalia Orlova:nataliya Orlova the chief economist of Alfa-Bank "Says the probability to return to an interval 60-65 is very essential by the end of the year. Perhaps, we could return to this interval and without actions of the Central bank. It is quite possible that the Central bank, stopping interventions in the foreign exchange market, could receive the same result, without moving a rate, without risking the reputation. The course all the same would return on the same values, 60-65, in the end of the year". And now it is possible to remember council of the Minister of Economics. In Business FM interview Maxim Oreshkin has confirmed that time to change dollars for rubles has come, and has proved that foreign with
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