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Date: a week ago   Category: Companies

Tatyana Evdokimova: "Key risk for our economy in 2019 — sanctions"


The chief economist of Nordea Bank Tatyana Evdokimova summed up the results of the expiring year and told what risks the Russian economy will face in 2019 the Photo: Ints Kalnins/Reuters according to her, the situation of strong uncertainty holds ruble underestimated for the current price of oil. This year was rather heavy: there were both currency shocks, and sanctions, but there was no global shake-up of the banking sector. What was this year, on your feelings? Tatyana Evdokimova: Yes, year was difficult, I still would add that raised a retirement age and declared increase in the VAT since 2019. Everything together is rather hard transferred by the population. Also still difficult the situation on global platforms develops. In particular, year was celebrated by strong sales in emerging markets. Spoke even about a situation of the crisis close to that which was observed in 2008. In the American domestic market essential sag: following the results of a year practical zero growth is shown by capital assets. The subject of trade war between the USA and China does not descend from the front pages. All this difficult picture in case of Russia was aggravated with sanctions shocks, weakening of an exchange rate therefore year really not the easiest. This year we noticed that ruble exchange rate got rid of a rate of oil. Whether it is possible to tell that it is final? Tatyana Evdokimova: I think that specifically this year such dynamics was connected with the fact that sanctions risks for Russia were the focus of attention of investors. And recently thanks to successful macroeconomic policy the Russian budget began to depend on oil less. At the same time sanctions risks are born in themselves by big problems for the Russian economy, and to them reacted first of all. But it does not seem to me that the Russian ruble will be able to ignore completely any movements in the oil market. For example, when for the first time this year oil was started up lower than 60 dollars for barrel, the ruble noticed it and quickly enough weakened. At the same time now key for the market is a subject of sanctions: the situation of strong uncertainty holds ruble underestimated for the current price of oil. This year record capital outflow is also recorded. It was always negatively estimated, but we do not agree with it: capital outflow is not only banal withdrawal of money from the country. Tell about it in more detail. Tatyana Evdokimova: The negative connotation is connected with the term "outflow". At the same time in terms of statistics capital outflow — just a difference between foreign assets and obligations of the Russian residents. Therefore different forms of capital outflow can be. For example, if the Russian company pays an external debt - it is capital outflow too, but it is good. If the Russian company buys the foreign company, then it is capital outflow too, and too in it there is nothing bad. Therefore it is necessary to understand that in the current year capital outflow was substantially connected with repayment of an external debt. Of course, there is a part which is connected with such negative factors as small outflow foreign portfelna

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