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Date: a week ago   Category: Finances

Support of ruble: The Central Bank has raised a rate

The rate is raised for the first time since December, 2014. At the same time the regulator has announced the decision to prolong the moratorium on purchase of currency until the end of December. The ruble has reacted to news with growth of the Photo: Grigory Sobchenko/ Is updated in 16:21centrobank has raised a rate on 25 basis points to 7,5% This first increase since 2014. The market expected that the rate will remain former. Besides, the Russian regulator has declared the decision to prolong the moratorium on purchase of currency within the budgetary rule in the market until the end of 2018. In the comment the regulator has noted that change of external conditions has significantly enhanced pro-inflationary risks. The Central Bank predicts annual inflation in the range of 5-5,5% following the results of the next year with return to 4% in 2020. The chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina has said at a press conference that ruble depreciation will add about 1% to inflation. Elvira Nabiullina the chairman of the Central Bank of Russian Federation "Ruble depreciation in August — the beginning of September involves increase in prices for goods and services. Assessment by the Bank of Russia of effect of transfer of an exchange rate in annual inflation hasn't changed and makes about 0,1, that is decrease in a nominal effective exchange rate by 10% adds to annual inflation 1 percentage point on the horizon of three-six months. So far since the beginning of year the nominal effective rate, by our calculations, has decreased approximately by 9% that about 0,9 percentage points will make a contribution to annual inflation. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, annual inflation will increase from 3,1% in August up to 3,8-4,2% by the end of this year. She will in addition accelerate in the first half of the year 2019 when the main effect of increase in the VAT is shown, and then growth rates of the prices will begin to decrease. The made decision on a key interest rate, along with suspension of purchase of foreign currency in domestic market, allows to limit growth of annual inflation to 5-5,5% in 2019. Inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020 when effects of increase in the VAT and course dynamics are exhausted". The ruble has instantly reacted to the solution of the regulator and has gone below to 67,5 levels for dollar. By 14:15 for dollar gave about 67 rubles 60 kopeks, for euro — it is slightly more than 79 rubles. The chief economist of PF "Capital" Evgeny Nadorshin argues on what has caused such step of the Central Bank. Evgeny Nadorshin the chief economist of PF "Capital" "The comment for increase in a rate very weak, unconvincing. I believe that the Central bank was mistaken more likely than what I have made the correct action. It is read between lines of the first that it is more likely about some tactical decision. It here in the way it is inaccurate to operate expectations of analysts is unattainable luxury if you want to work normally within the mode of inflation targeting. Not the first time of the Central Bank misses by expectations of analysts, not the first time his signals going to the market, and not the first time this year are very chaotic. It seems to me that it creates more likely additional threats in the medium term because misunderstanding, mistrust of m is simple



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