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Date: a month ago   Category: Society

Pouyekhali here: what outflow of migrants threatens Russia with. Semyon Novoprudsky's column


How did the country appear on a threshold of migration crisis, unexpected for narrow-minded consciousness, and why it is rather bad, than well? Semyon Novoprudsky. Photo: Tatyana Frolova Be afraid of the desires: they have property to come true. At the beginning of the 2010th years the subject of fight against foreign migrants was one of the most popular in the Russian mass consciousness. Like, "came in large numbers here", work for pennies and take away jobs from "radical". Now Russia appeared on a threshold of migration crisis, unexpected for narrow-minded consciousness: against the background of growth of persons interested to leave Russia to other countries the flow of persons interested to come to work to Russia sharply is reduced. For the country it is rather bad, than well. Experts of Institute of Gaidar showed in the latest issue of "Monitoring of an economic situation in Russia" how the migration rivers feeding Russia for more than 20 years since 1991 promptly shallow. Process increases since 2014 — the moment of sharp ruble depreciation after "the Crimean spring", began the wars in Donbass and sanctions opposition with the West. According to experts of Institute of Gaidar, the number of so-called long-term international migrants to Russia does not grow 2014, and their "leaving" increases. And migration increase in population in 2018 was historically the lowest from the moment of the collapse of the USSR. "Since 2014 the number of the international migrants arriving in Russia was stabilized at the level of 565-600 thousand people, but the number of left increased from 308 thousand in 2014 to 441 thousand in 2018" — it is said in "Monitoring". Thus, pure gain of migrants already practically does not exceed 150 thousand people whereas compensation of natural losses of the population of Russia requires gain of migrants at the level of not less than 500 thousand people annually. The number of temporary labor migrants in Russia did not return on pre-crisis marks of six-year prescription. In the last three years this indicator is in range of 9.2-10.2 million people. For comparison, in their 2013 there were 10-11.5 million. It is clear, that the vast majority of migrants in Russia — from the CIS countries. As of April 1, 2019, they were 8.2 million (86% of all migrants). To Russia the countries of Central Asia and Ukraine traditionally give the main flow of labor migrants. However both of these sources promptly run low. In 2018 the flow of the Ukrainian migrants in Russia dropped in comparison with 2015 almost by 30%, but the number of the citizens of Ukraine who left Russia, on the contrary, sharply grew up — by 2.6 times. Migrants saved two and a half decades Russia from a demographic hole and compensated natural losses of the population. In the last two years against the background of increase in outflow of migrants from Russia also the birth rate began to decrease. As a result in 2018 against the background of growth of mortality (218 thousand Russians died) and falling of birth rate natural losses of the population made 99.7 thousand people. And these natural losses were noted in 60 regions of the country whereas the population only in fifteen increased

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