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Date: 9 months ago   Category: Finances

Deutsche Bank: ruble — one of the most underestimated currencies


According to economists of bank, the Russian currency is weaker than the "fair course" for 15%. Whether there are bases for this purpose whether the ruble can become stronger and what will be a course next year? Photo: Ralph Peters/Imago/TASS Deutsche Bank has included ruble in the three of the most underestimated currencies. RBC with reference to the review of bank reports about it. According to the economist of bank Christian Vetoshki, the ruble is 15% weaker than the "fair course". He also predicts that ruble exchange rate will become stronger up to 60 rubles for dollar. Last time the ruble was trading at this level on April 4, 2018, that is in two days prior to introduction of the next package of sanctions of the USA. In the review it is said that an important role for strengthening of ruble have played the decision of the Central Bank to raise a rate for the first time since 2014 and also refusal of the Central Bank of purchase of currency until the end of the current year. Support to the Russian currency is given also by macroeconomic stability. The main threat to ruble the expert called the anti-Russian sanctions. The senior analyst of BKS Sergey Suverov comments: — Really, the ruble is underestimated rather current cost of prices of oil now. Our fair assessment of ruble exchange rate makes about 62-63 rubles for dollar. I think that really there are certain fundamental prerequisites for strengthening of ruble. But the uncertainty connected, naturally, with the American sanctions if there is a stringent scenario and the ban on purchase of a new national debt and, especially, infernal sanctions against state banks, in particular freezing of corresponding accounts, can arise deficiency of dollar liquidity. Also there can be in one stage strong decline of ruble, well, we consider that somewhere at the level of 72-75 rubles for dollar. But, probably, it will be more likely such short-term reaction, and then the ruble can become stronger again. But on the other hand, the Central Bank has let know that next year it will buy currency in the accelerated order, including at the expense of the postponed purchases of this year, and these purchases of currency will eat surplus on the current account. Therefore, as for the next year, prospect purely technical, not fundamental, not really iridescent for ruble. — That is strengthening in the medium term shouldn't be expected? — I think that in the long term the next year precisely isn't necessary, and this year there are prerequisites some for technical strengthening, but a lot of things will depend on sanctions of the USA. Though the ruble is also underestimated, but his strengthenings in the long term the deputy chief of the Center of macroeconomic forecasting of Gazprombank Maxim Petronevich:maksim Petronevich of the deputy chief of the Center of macroeconomic forecasting of Gazprombank "Isn't observed, agrees in spite of the fact that, certainly, the ruble is underestimated, I wouldn't tell that it is possible to expect some serious strengthening of ruble on the short-term horizon. Certainly, in lack of sanctions it, in principle, maybe, and news of Bloomberg say that the American senators won't manage to introduce restrictions, the ruble can become stronger until the end of the year. And in principle, we estimate that р

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