On this background Saudi Arabia studies probability of disintegration of OPEC. How can it influence the oil market? Why "black gold" becomes cheaper? Photo: depositphotos.com the Cost of Brent oil has fallen lower than 70 dollars for barrel for the first time since the beginning of April, 2018 — 69,68 dollars (1,3% less in comparison with closing of the previous session). Raw materials become cheaper since the beginning of October when the price of barrel rose higher than 86 dollars against the background of fears of reduction of the offer in the market because of new sanctions against Iran. What it is possible to explain the current falling of the prices with? The editor on the commodity markets of Reuters agency Alexander Ershov:aleksandr Yershov the editor on the commodity markets of Reuters agency "Autumn reduction of prices of oil — norm of the market to which he follows many years answers. Now to it the fundamental factor is added, many had had fear in delay of economy (what most strongly influences demand for energy resources). If she really is slowed down, the prices can strongly fall in the medium term; the combination of seasonal and fundamental factors has made decrease noticeable. One more moment — Iran. The market expected that after entry into force of the American sanctions against Iran there will be some nervousness, offer volume will be reduced. In practice three world's largest producers (Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA) are ready to increase production. The factor of Iran, sanctions against which were weaker, than was planned, was much more less concerning for the market, than it was expected". In forthcoming output representatives of OPEC and Russia plan to discuss a situation in the market. "Considering falling of the prices and probability of formation of surplus of the offer next year, the OPEC thinks over production reduction" — it is said in the report of Commerzbank. What will be with prices of oil in the short term? The main strategist of IK "Univer Capital" Dmitry Aleksandrov:dmitry Alexandrov the main strategist of IK "Univer Capital" "Argues on it the price completely has won back the idea of embargo on Iran. Respectively, the prices have returned and have even left slightly more deeply than that levels from which they began rally one and a half months ago. Now there will probably be a certain return up judging from the fact that too many main consumers of the Iranian oil have received privileges from the United States. Probably, they are flexibly coordinated with each party. Besides, there is active growth of the resumed production in the United States. Strong impact will be exerted by the closest dynamics of production in Libya and Venezuela. From the point of view of the market of oil return to the region of 72 dollars is probable". Riyadh studies possible scenarios of succession of events after disintegration of OPEC. "In the kingdom know that demand for oil won't be eternal" — I have told a source of The Wall Street Journal. The interlocutor of the edition has added that these researches aren't reflection of discussions about whether Saudi Arabia it is worth leaving oil cartel. To add BFM.ru to your sources of news?
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